With the NHL Trade Deadline behind us, it’s now time to buckle up for the stretch run to the playoffs, and many teams are thinking they are in a good position to make a big playoff push.
When looking at the NHL’s Conference standings right now though, it seems to me that there is a huge difference between the Eastern Conference teams and Western Conference teams who currently hold down playoff positions. And the more I think about it, the more I think that there are really not that many teams who I see making a long Cup run this spring.
Here’s an team-by-team analysis of how I think each team’s immediate future will play out, in order of the standings as of this morning (Tues. Feb. 28, 2012).
Eastern Conference
1. New York Rangers (40-15-6, 86 pts) – The way I see it, the Rangers are the only team in the East that can end up in the Cup finals, and the only team who can challenge someone from the West. They have balanced scoring from Marian Gaborik to Artem Anisimov, and have arguably one of the deepest bluelines in the league with Dan Girardi logging the most minutes in the league per game. Then there’s the fact they have Henrik Lundqvist in goal; the veteran Swede is on top of his game lately, winning 11 of his last 14 starts, and leads the league in shutouts with 8. While I think the Western Conference has a better chance of winning it all, the Rangers are the team from the East that could disrupt that.
2. Boston Bruins (37-20-3, 77 pts) – The defending champs haven’t changed too much since last season, and definitely deserve the second seed in the East. While it’s not worrying that Brad Marchand is the team leader in goals (22), it is worrying that Nathan Horton and Rich Peverly aren’t even in the top five in goals on the Bruins. Their success in the postseason last year was due to their bruising physical play, but I think teams have stocked up with answers to the Bruins’ physical play, and the Bruins have become the league’s second most penalized team. Tim Thomas isn’t the same goalie as a year ago, which could hurt the Bruins come April.
3. Florida Panthers (29-20-12, 70 pts) – The surprise team of the year, no doubt, currently leading the Southeast division. However, with Winnipeg and Washington right on their heels, there’s no guarantee that the cats will even make the playoffs. The quietly good play of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen has been nice to see, but there’s just something about a team whose leading scorers are Kris Versteeg and Thomas Fleischmann...should Florida make the postseason, they’re very young, and aren’t built up yet for a long playoff haul.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (36-21-5, 77 pts) – Evgeni Malkin is the best player in the NHL right now, which is scary for other teams to think about. The last time he went on a tear like he is now was the postseason in 2009 when the Pens won the Cup. James Neal has emerged as a legitimate superstar, and the discipline change in Matt Cooke has been phenomenal for the Penguins, who are also getting strong goaltending. If the Penguins are looking this good now, it’s going to be frightening if you-know-who returns for the postseason, and might even be able to give the Rangers a run for their money.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (34-20-7, 75 pts) – This team is good, there’s no doubt about it. Claude Giroux has emerged as a superstar, Scott Hartnell is putting up career numbers, and the resurrection of Jaromir Jagr takes me back to my childhood, watching him make play after play. There’s just one problem in Philly: goaltending. Ilya Bryzgalov isn’t even close to living up to his massive salary, and Sergei Bobrovsky is struggling as well. Because of this, I don’t see the Flyers lasting too long in the playoffs.
6. New Jersey Devils (35-23-4, 74 pts) – I swear every year I don’t hear anything about the Devils until about this point in the season, and they’re always in the playoff spot. Ilya Kovalchuk is their heart and soul, averaging the most ice time per game among NHL forwards. Could this be a mistake, though? Are the Devils overplaying him? Fans will have to wait it out and see, but one concern is production from their blueline, where there leading scorer has only 16 points. This has to change by the playoffs, otherwise the Devils are in big trouble.
7. Ottawa Senators (33-23-8, 74 pts) – While I am pleased to see Ottawa in a comfortable playoff spot, and happy that they didn’t make any big moves at the deadline, I still don’t think they are quite set for another run at the Cup. Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson are the clear leaders on a team which could make some noise in the first and second round of the playoffs. A young, inexperienced group never amounts to much in their first postseason together, and while I do like the Sens as a group, GM Bryan Murray had better work on keeping them intact for next season and a legitimate Cup run. Oh, and Craig Anderson being out “indefinitely” doesn’t help their chances this season, either.
8. Winnipeg Jets (30-27-8, 68 pts) – I know what you’re thinking: Winnipeg, a playoff team? Well, don’t speak too soon, as they do have the Capitals breathing down their neck. Another surprise team, the Jets have some good pieces in place, but again don’t expect this relatively young team to do much when the playoffs begin, if they’re in the playoffs. Two-time Cup champion Andrew Ladd and fellow champ from Chicago Dustin Byfuglien are the only true, tested playoff vets on the team.
9. Washington Capitals (31-26-5, 67 pts) – In my opinion, Washington is the only Eastern team who doesn’t currently occupy a playoff spot that has a chance at taking one. They’ve begun to heat up lately, and with a healthy Mike Green back in the lineup, they will only get better. That being said, there’s still lots of hockey to be played between now and the end of the regular season, and coach Dale Hunter had better hope that Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin keep producing offensively, and that Michael Neuvirth and Tomas Vokoun keep providing him with a comfortable backstop in net.
10. Toronto Maple Leafs (29-26-7, 65 pts) – Let me put this succinctly: the Leafs need a real goalie if they want to have any chance of making any playoffs for the next few years. Jonas Gustavsson and James Reimer may one day be that goalie, but I don’t see it happening overnight. Oh, and did I mention that the Leafs are the NHL’s worst team over the past month? Until they find that goalie, it will be another April on the golf course for Toronto.
11. Tampa Bay Lightning (28-28-6, 62 pts) – Their chances are slim, but they’re still chances. Goals leader Steven Stamkos is starting to get secondary offensive contribution behind him, but just like the Leafs, the Lightning have a bit of a goaltending situation to figure out. Fortunately for them, they will have a long off-season to do so.
12. Buffalo Sabres (27-27-8, 62 pts) – Their chances are slimmer than Tampas, simply because of a lack of offence. Huge spending in the past off-season has turned out to be a disaster, and really everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong for Buffalo this year.
13. New York Islanders (26-28-8, 60 pts) – It is absolutely baffling to me that the Isles aren’t last in the East. Other than John Tavares and the emerging Matt Moulson, they don’t have any consistent offensive threat, and their blueline and goaltending is also an issue. While they are (somehow) only eight points out of a spot, their season’s as good as done.
14. Carolina Hurricanes (23-26-13, 59 pts) – With all due respect to the Hurricanes, they are the epitome of what is a weak Eastern Conference this season. Remember back in November and December, when they were right down with Columbus in the basement of the league? Well now the Canes are only nine points out of a spot. Again, simply mind-boggling.
15. Montreal Canadiens (24-29-10, 58 pts) – Remember when I said I didn’t know how the Islanders or Hurricanes were in last spot? I had forgotten how terrible Montreal has been playing this year. Not to beat a dead horse, but eight million dollars a year for Scott Gomez? Pretty much sums up the Habs right now.
Western Conference
1. Vancouver Canucks (40-16-7, 87 pts) – We all know what happened to the Canucks last season; they made it to the Cup Finals, and then got the living daylights beaten out of them (literally) by the Big Bad Bruins. Their answer this year: Zack Kassian. Who, you might ask? Zack Kassian. All due respect to Kassian, but he’s no answer to a Milan Lucic or a Mike Rupp. While I do think the Canucks will make a deep push, there’s still the possibility that Roberto Luongo could fall into his annual playoff slump. But I guess that’s not as concerning when you have the best backup in all of hockey sitting on the bench. Of the four Western teams who I think have a shot, Vancouver is one of them.
2. St Louis Blues (39-17-7, 85 pts) – Where did this come from? I’ll tell you where, Ken Hitchcock. Since he took over as head coach, St Lou has been playing unbelievably well. Their stellar one-two goalie punch of Jaro Halak and Brian Elliott has been superb, they’ve been getting awesome play from the blueline, and then there are the centremen. Let’s examine the size: David Backes, 6’3, 225 lbs. Patrick Berglund, 6’4, 219 lbs. Jason Arnott, 6’5, 220 lbs. This bodes very well for a matchup against, say Vancouver. I really do like the Blues’ chances, and they’re also in the four teams I think can make a Cup run from the West.
3. Phoenix Coyotes (32-21-9, 73 pts) – Every time I look at the Pacific division standings, there’s someone new at the top of it. Now it’s Phoenix’s turn, but there’s just something about the team that I just can’t see them coming out of a series against someone like St Louis or Detroit. If the Coyotes can get lucky, and win out the division, then maybe the stronger teams will end up matched against each other, and wear each other down. Otherwise, and as much as I want to, I just don’t think Shane Doan and the desert dogs have quite what it takes yet. That would make a sweet band name, though.
4. Detroit Red Wings (41-19-3, 85 pts) – Every year I say this is the year that the Red Wings will start to stumble, and won’t make playoffs because they’re getting old. And every darn year they prove me wrong. The third team which I think can make a Cup run from this conference, the Wings seem to have everything going well at the moment. Their almost unbeatable at home, they have a shockingly balanced scoring attack, and Jimmy Howard might just be a candidate for the Vezina Trophy at season’s end. After proving me wrong the past few years, maybe they’ll prove me right this spring and play deep into the spring.
5. Nashville Predators (37-19-9, 81 pts) – I am becoming a big fan of the Nashville Predators. The moves they made before the deadline will help them out a lot, and the Preds are already a really good team. It’s unfortunate they’re stuck in a division with Detroit and St Louis otherwise we might be seeing them in the top three of the conference. Mike Fisher is becoming the #1 centre they were hoping for, Ryan Suter and Shea Weber are staying put for a push, and Pekka Rinne might be the best goalie in the league after Lundqvist. Maybe, just maybe, this will be the year that Barry Trotz’s Predators can make it past the second round and make some noise late in May or even into June. I think this is the year they can do it.
6. Chicago Blackhawks (33-24-7, 73 pts) – I don’t know what’s wrong with the Hawks. It seems like every time I hear about them, someone is being blasted for not playing well. First it was the defence corps, then their goaltending, now their forwards. Jonathan Toews is having a great year, but they need more production from guys like Patrick Kane and Viktor Stalberg. Also, while Corey Crawford is a good goaltender, he needs to get in a groove and find his consistency that won him the starting job over Marty Turco last season.
7. San Jose Sharks (32-22-7, 71 pts) – Every year I say this is the year the Sharks will win the West and challenge for the Cup in the Finals. And every darn year they prove me wrong. Sound familiar? Well maybe this year they, too, will prove me right. Yes they have good offensive players like Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau, and Logan Couture. But, just like Phoenix, I have trouble seeing them being able to get past Detroit, or their playoff nemesis in Nashville.
8. Dallas Stars (33-26-4, 70 pts) – The Stars are another one of those teams who, while I think is a very good team, doesn’t have either the scoring touch or the toughness to take down one of the higher-ranked teams in the West in a best-of-seven format. With multiple teams breathing down their neck, it’s conceivable that neither the Sharks nor the Stars could make the playoffs, which would not come as a big surprise to me.
9. Colorado Avalanche (33-27-4, 70 pts) – One of the hottest teams in the league right now, the Avalanche are quietly making their way into the playoff picture. How are they doing so, you might ask? Honest answer: I have no idea. They have gotten relatively balanced scoring, and relatively steady goaltending, but could it be that they’re just catching teams on bad nights? Or just wearing them down? If the Avs do make the playoffs, it will be a short-lived post-season, but one can always hope, right?
10. Los Angeles Kings (28-23-12, 68 pts) –Long gone are the days when Luc Robitaille and Wayne Gretzky ruled LA, and now it’s on the shoulders of Anze Kopitar and new acquisition Jeff Carter to find an offensive stride. One problem: both players are underachieving drastically this season. How the Kings are still in the playoff race with nobody on the roster who has 20 goals this season is beyond me, but it’s a strong testament to their defensive play and the skill of Jonathan Quick in goal. If they do manage to squeak in, they might make things interesting for a few games in the first series, but if they don’t find their offensive stride (which they won’t under Darryl Sutter), then it’ll be a first-round exit.
11. Calgary Flames (28-24-11, 67 pts) – The Flames are so hot and cold that it doesn’t even make the lame pun funny. One night they’ll look unbelievably good against Detroit, and the next they’ll stink it up in Edmonton. This sort of consistency won’t see you go far in the playoffs. Miikka Kiprusoff has been their saving grace all year, but he struggled last night against St Louis, so he needs to rebound, and quickly.
12. Minnesota Wild (28-25-9, 65 pts) – It seems like only a short month and a half ago that I remember seeing the Minnesota Wild atop the NHL overall standings. Oh wait, it was only a short month and a half ago that the Wild were atop the standings. They’ve fallen very far from grace since then, and now are very much in danger of not making the postseason. What’s missing: offence.
13. Anaheim Ducks (27-26-10, 64 pts) – Yes, they’ve been one of the league’s hottest teams since Christmas, but I still don’t think they’ll get up past LA or Dallas in the standings before the end of the regular season. It’s been a weird year in Anaheim, but they should be back to their normal annoyingly good selves next season.
14. Edmonton Oilers (25-31-6, 56 pts) – The Oilers have one of the best youngest teams in the league. Add in another early first-round pick this summer, and they might be able to make a push for a playoff spot next year. I think they’re still a good goalie and stud defenceman, along with three or four years away from being a top Cup contender though.
15. Columbus Blue Jackets (18-37-7, 43 pts) – This team is a disaster. After a month of speculating whether the team would trade its only good player, Rick Nash, before the deadline, GM Scott Howson came out with the news yesterday that Nash asked to be traded in January. My question is, why didn’t Nash ask for out sooner? Some horrible off-season acquisitions, coupled with this Nash debacle, and I don’t see the Jackets coming out of the West basement anytime soon.
In conclusion, my current predictions, which are subject to change when the playoffs begin, will be that the Rangers will come out East champions, and will face either the Canucks, Blues, Red Wings or Predators in the Stanley Cup Finals.
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